Mose Job Nyandwaki, Wanjohi Peter Maina, Oganga Caneble Ochieng & Otieno O. Godffrey : ​Statistical Analysis of Primary School Enrolment and FPE Funds in Kenya

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Mose Job Nyandwaki, Wanjohi Peter Maina, Oganga Caneble Ochieng & Otieno O. Godffrey : ​Statistical Analysis of Primary School Enrolment and FPE Funds in Kenya

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  Mose Job Nyandwaki et. al  . /   International Journal of Modern Sciences and Engineering Technology (IJMSET)  ISSN 2349-3755; Available at https://www.ijmset.comVolume 2, Issue 2, 2015, pp.11-17  © IJMSET-Advanced Scientific Research Forum (ASRF), All Rights Reserved “IJMSET promotes research nature, Research nature enriches the world’s future” 11 Statistical Analysis of Primary School Enrolment and FPE Funds in Kenya  Abstract  Statistical analyses play a vital role in informing policy makers in making sound decisions. In Kenya public primary school enrollments rose significantly with the implementation of the FPE programme. This programmewas launched with the aim of increasing access to primary education and reducing school dropout rates. Thiswas one of the interventions the Kenyan government launched in its determination to achieving Education For  All (Education For All) by 2015. Despite of the launch and implementation, questions still arise as to whether the funds allocated are commensurate with the enrollment and the cost attached to the enrollment not forgetting the inconsistency and reliability. The aim of this paper was to establish whether there is a linear relationshipbetween the funds allocated and the enrollments in schools and, to determine whether there is a significant difference between the funds allocated and the enrollment. The study used secondary data obtained from Education for All End Decade Assessment (2001-2010) Report. Regression and correlation analysis wasemployed in this paper. Also t-test was used to confirm or reject one of the hypotheses. It was established that there is no linear relationship between FPE funds disbursed and the enrolment in Kenyan primary schools. Also, it was evident that there is a significant difference between the FPE amount disbursed to schools and theenrolment in primary schools in Kenya. From the study it is clear that funding free education only does not  significantly improve access and hence reduce the dropout rates. Therefore, in order to achieve EFA goals and increase access , funding of free education should be done alongside other strategies such as hiring of additional teachers, investing in education infrastructure, providing adequate learning materials, educating and  sensitizing Kenyan parents and children about the importance of education. FPE alone may not help much fromthe analysis presented in this paper.  Keywords:  EFA, FPE, Linear relationship, Correlation, t-test  1.0INTRODUCTION Education is widely valued as a central factor in economic, social, and political developmentof any country. The eight Millennium Development Goals srcinated from United NationsMillennium Declaration, in 2000, which was presented during the United Nations MillenniumSummit. The Summit was held from 6 th  to 8 th  September 2000 in New York, UN Headquarters(United Nations, 2014). MDG 2 requires member states to achieve education for all by 2015. Kenya being a member state is determined to achieve the goal among other goals. In the endeavor to achievethe goal, the government of Kenya launched Free Primary Education (FPE), in 2003, which resultedto high primary schools enrolment.Even though there was an increment in enrolment in both primary and secondary schools, as aresult of FPE and Free Day Secondary Education (FDSE), the net impact as far as school dropout isconcerned was not significant. Despite of the high numbers of enrolment, dropout rates in subsequentyears nearly remained the same (Mose et al, 2014). Mose Job Nyandwaki 1  Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nairobi, Kenya  jobmose2013@gmail.com   Wanjohi Peter Maina  Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nairobi, Kenya wpmaina@gmail.com Oganga Caneble Ochieng 3  Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nairobi, Kenya canebleoganga@gmail.com Otieno O.Godffrey 4  Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Nairobi, Kenya  godfreyotieno2006@gmail.com  Mose Job Nyandwaki et. al  . /   International Journal of Modern Sciences and Engineering Technology (IJMSET)  ISSN 2349-3755; Available at https://www.ijmset.comVolume 2, Issue 2, 2015, pp.11-17  © IJMSET-Advanced Scientific Research Forum (ASRF), All Rights Reserved “IJMSET promotes research nature, Research nature enriches the world’s future” 12 A study on financing lifelong learning in the global knowledge economy by Lewin andCaillods (2001), concluded that with the optimism for achieving Universal Primary Education (UPE),Sub-Sahara Africa countries, Kenya included, required sevenfold increase in foreign assistance for  primary education, nearly 4% of GNP (Gross National Product) to secondary schooling in order toachieve 60% gross enrolment. Achieving 100% secondary gross enrolment would require a budgetaryallocation of more than 6% GNP.Primary school repetition, dropout and survival rates were expected to improve due to theimplementation of various programmes that were likely to yield higher retention rates. Specificinitiatives included provision of teaching and learning materials under the FPE programme and primary education physical infrastructure under the Kenya Education Support Programme in itsdetermination to achieve EFA by 2015 not with-standing countable decreases (Government of Kenya,2009b). Since, the initiation of FPE, there is need to analyze what is currently being financed andwhat the future needs in the country will be and to assess the scale and existing nature of primaryeducation.However, it should be noted that pupils’ enrolment in schools is influenced by a number of factors which include;i.Household factors e.g. child age and sex, the value placed to the child’s time by parentsamong others,ii.School based factors e.g. capacity of the schools, curriculums, school fees and other expenses,teacher experience, student-teacher ratio among many others, andiii.Environmental factors e.g. rural and urban setting, the distance to school from the household,among others.As noted by the World Bank (2005) provision of good quality secondary education is acritical tool in generating the opportunities and benefits of social and economic development.Educating people means putting opportunities into their hands and is recognized as one of the bestanti-poverty strategies.Several studies have been done to determine the net impact of FPE to school enrolments anddropouts in Kenya and several findings published. Despite of that, this paper aims at establishing thestatistical relationships between primary school enrolment and the FPE funds. In this paper thesignificance of the FPE funds will also be established through tests of hypotheses. Little has beendone as far as statistical analysis such as the one in this paper is concerned. 1.1Objectives The main objective is to determine whether there is a statistical relationship between primaryschool enrolment and the FPE funds. Other objectives include;i.To determine whether there is a linear relationship between primary school enrolment andFPE funds disbursed per year ii.To establish whether there is a significant difference between FPE funds allocated and primary school enrolment in Kenya 1.2Hypothesis a. H 0 : There is no relationship between primary school enrolment and the FPE funds in Kenya b. H 0 :  There is significant difference between FPE funds allocated to primary schools and the primary school enrolment in Kenya 2.0LITERATURE REVIEW Education is a basic right as stipulated in the Constitution of Kenya, 2010 and BasicEducation Act, 2013. Article 53 1(b) of the Kenyan Constitution, free and mandatory basic educationis provided as a basic human right for all Kenyan children. Article 43 1(f) education is recognized as asocial economic right for all Kenyans education (National Council for Law Reporting, 2010). InKenya, it is mandatory for all eligible girls and boys to attend school; children aged 6-13 years shouldattend primary school education and those aged 14-17 years should attend secondary school (National  Mose Job Nyandwaki et. al  . /   International Journal of Modern Sciences and Engineering Technology (IJMSET)  ISSN 2349-3755; Available at https://www.ijmset.comVolume 2, Issue 2, 2015, pp.11-17  © IJMSET-Advanced Scientific Research Forum (ASRF), All Rights Reserved “IJMSET promotes research nature, Research nature enriches the world’s future” 13 Council for Law Reporting, 2013). It is worth noting that, secondary school attendance depends onthe age of the child at primary school entry and completion.Since independence, in 1963, the Kenyan government has been dedicated to expansion of theeducation system to accommodate all children. This dedication is based on the aspiration of thegovernment to combat poverty, disease and ignorance and the conviction that every individual hasright to education as stipulated in the constitution. Since the adoption of the eight MDGs, member states Kenya included have been striving to achieve these MDGs by 2015. MDG 2 and MDG 3 aimsat achieving universal primary education and eliminating gender inequality. In 2003, the Kenyangovernment introduced the Free Primary Education with core objective of achieving universal primary education and gender parity in primary education. From 1980s up to 2002, primary educationwas financed through the cost sharing system, where parents and the government shared costs of running primary schools education. However, many children were locked out of the primaryeducation system due to lack of tuition fees. Despite the introduction of FPE, there are variouschallenges being experienced in the primary education system and stakeholders are concerned aboutthe likelihood of declining quality of education due to high primary school enrolment rate (UNICEFKenya, 2009).Increased access to primary education is a key concern to various governments’ developmentstrategy. For instance, Universal Primary Education forms the basis of implementing PovertyReduction Strategy by the government through the acquisition of basic literacy skills, which increasesopportunities for employment (World Bank, 2009). Therefore, empirical evidence confirms that withthe introduction of FPE, Primary School enrolments grew from approximately six million toapproximately 7.2 million pupils in 2003 with a GER of 104% compared to 87.6% in 2002 (Riddell,2003).The increment in the primary school enrolments since 2003 is attributed to the introduction of FPE. To promote FPE, the government demonstrated its commitment through increased funding for the education sector. Since 2003, the educational expenditure by the government is estimated toconstitute at least 29% of the country’s recurrent expenditure from which 55% was meant for primaryeducation. Moreover, empirical research on the impact of FPE on Primary School enrolments showthat there are other existing set of indicators that affect the government’s effort towards providing better educational access (Riddell, 2003).Government’s budgetary allocation for primary education requires public funds in supportingrecurrent expenditure. As a result, recurrent expenditure within the education sector takes up at least90% of the funds allocated whose significant effect slows down or hinders education infrastructuredevelopment. For instance, gross enrollment rate would reduce in the end due to more allocation of funds without proper targeting (Mukudi, 2004). Further, the primary education sector continues toface myriad of other challenges whose contribution is significant in affecting the enrolment rate in theend. For instance, the increased funding for FPE has resulted in shortage of teachers, overcrowding atschools and inadequate learning materials. These quandaries are comparable to the previousstrategies used by government in trying to boost enrolment in primary education such as the defunctschool milk program meant to promote enrolment (Mukudi, 2004). According to Oketch andSomerset (2010), primary school enrolment rose to 7.16 million from 6.13million in 2002. On thecontrary, when the national estimates on pupil enrolment are disaggregated to the individual schoollevels up from the district level, the response to free primary education varies significantly due tovarious socio economic factors (Oketch & Somerset, 2010).The late allocation of FPE funds by the government of Kenya has a significant effect on theenrolment rates leading to delays in the implementation of the planned activities. The existingdisparities between donor commitments in providing financial aid and doing actual disbursements plays a critical role in meeting the set out objectives of FPE. In 2004 /05, only 29% of the funds promised by donors were actually disbursed due to the unmet conditions set (International MonetaryFund, 2012). Despite the government exploring the sector wide approach to mitigate delays in fundsfor FPE, school enrolments will continue to be affected by the varying School based andenvironmental factors (Oketch & Somerset, 2010).  Mose Job Nyandwaki et. al  . /   International Journal of Modern Sciences and Engineering Technology (IJMSET)  ISSN 2349-3755; Available at https://www.ijmset.comVolume 2, Issue 2, 2015, pp.11-17  © IJMSET-Advanced Scientific Research Forum (ASRF), All Rights Reserved “IJMSET promotes research nature, Research nature enriches the world’s future” 14 In addition, the improvement experienced in the primary school enrolments has posed a newchallenge in sustainability of the programme. According to Cockburn (2010), the GOK increased itseducation budget up by 17 per cent in 2004. In 2003, donors such as the World Bank and Britishgovernment offered Ksh. 3.7 billion and Ksh. 1.6 billion respectively to GOK in support of FPE.However, with the upward trend in primary School enrolments, the present cost of education hasconcurrently risen. Thus, the government would soon face the challenge of sustaining the FPE programme if the donor community withdraws its support (Cockburn, 2010). The above studies arerelevant because they support our study, which seeks to establish if there is a linear relationship between the primary school enrolment and the FPE funds allocated to the education sector and if thereexists a significant difference in the amounts allocated to primary education sector and the totalenrollment in Kenya. 3.0METHODOLOGY This paper used secondary data obtained from Education for All End Decade Assessment (2001-2010) Report, a publication of Republic of Kenya, Ministry of Education and United NationsEducational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The target population was the entire primary school enrolment from the year 2003 to 2011 that was purposively selected. Regression andcorrelation analysis was done to establish whether a linear relationship existed between the primaryschool enrolment and the FPE funds allocated to the sector in Kenya. Also, t-test was carried out toestablish whether there was a significant difference in the amounts allocated to primary educationsector and the total primary school enrolment in Kenya. The data used is in Table 1. Table 1: FPE Funds Disbursement FY 2002/2003 – 2010/2011 and Primary School Enrolment2003 – 2011.Financial YearFPE Funds DisbursedEnrolment2002/20034,507,084,0716,954,1232003/20047,928,714,8996,971,1982004/20057,441,200,8947,337,4952005/20067,566,093,9917,495,2442006/20077,814,008,2897,538,1672007/20087,618,127,1917,954,2212008/20095,569,948,2008,096,3252009/20107,724,472,1278,226,3632010/20117,295,228,3638,462,942  Source:  Education for All End Decade Assessment (2001-2010) Report  4.0RESULTS AND DISCUSSION From the analysis the findings were segmented into two namely;a.The linear relationship between the FPE funds and enrolment b.The difference between the FPE funds and enrolment 4.1 The linear relationship between the FPE and enrolment To establish this, a regression analysis was carried out and the findings are as in Table 2; Table 2: Regression CoefficientsModelUnstandardized CoefficientsStandardizedCoefficientstSig.   BStd. ErrorBeta   1(Constant)7054007.9091212183.2985.819.001   Funds8.745E-5.000.191.515.622a. Dependent Variable: Enrolment  Mose Job Nyandwaki et. al  . /   International Journal of Modern Sciences and Engineering Technology (IJMSET)  ISSN 2349-3755; Available at https://www.ijmset.comVolume 2, Issue 2, 2015, pp.11-17  © IJMSET-Advanced Scientific Research Forum (ASRF), All Rights Reserved “IJMSET promotes research nature, Research nature enriches the world’s future” 15 From Table 2.0 above, the linear relationship between FPE funds and primary enrolment can be statedto be; Enrollment=7054007.909+8.745*10 -5  (FPE funds). However, this relationship is not significant since its significance level holds at 0.622. The equationshows that there is very little effect brought by the FPE funds allocated for Primary Education(8.745*10 -5 ) on the primary school net enrolment (7054007.909).Further, correlation analysis was done to establish the strength of the relationship. The result from thecorrelation analysis is presented in the Table 3 below; Table 3: Correlation between FPE funds and EnrolmentFPE FundsEnrolment   FPE Funds Pearson Correlation10.191   Sig. (2-tailed)0.622 N99   Enrolment Pearson Correlation0.1911   Sig. (2-tailed)0.622 N99From Table 3.0, the Pearson Correlation coefficient between FPE funds and Enrolment in Kenya is0.191. This clearly shows that the relationship between the two variables is weak.Lastly the hypothesis that there is no relationship between FPE funds and Enrolment in Kenya wastested. The findings are presented in table 4 below; Table 4: ANOVA   ModelSum of SquaresdfMean SquareFSig.   1Regression8.619E1018.619E10.265.622a   Residual2.274E1273.248E11   Total2.360E128   a. Predictors: (Constant), FPE Funds b. Dependent Variable: EnrolmentFrom Table 4, the test reveals that the relationship not significant (Sig. 0.622). This therefore, impliesthat the hypothesis that there is no relationship between FPE funds and Enrolment in Kenya is notrejected/significant.4.2 The mean difference between FPE Funds and Enrolment in Kenya.There is need also to establish whether there is a difference in the means of FPE funds and Enrolmentin Kenya. This test determines whether the mean of the amount/quantity of the two variables is thesame or not. To establish this independent t-test is done. The result from the analysis is presented inthe table 5 below; Table 5: Means   MeanNStd. DeviationStd. Error Mean   Pair 1FPE Funds7.05E991.187E93.956E8   Enrolment7670675.339543151.748181050.583It can be revealed that the mean for the FPE funds is 7.05*10 9  while that of the enrolment is7,670,657.
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